Showing posts with label internatinal appraiser. Show all posts
Showing posts with label internatinal appraiser. Show all posts

Friday, November 29, 2013

Interview techniques for appraisers and valuers

Each ACFE (Association of Certified Fraud Examiners) Fraud Conference has an optional pre-conference seminar on a subject of special interest by a dynamic and authoritative speaker.  This year’s presentation was on Forensic Interview Techniques for Fraud Examiners and Auditors by Jonathan Davison, director of Forensic Interview Solutions Ltd of New Zealand.  These interview techniques are meant to solve fraud crimes, but part of the job of a diligent real estate appraiser is to prevent fraud, thereby ensuring a more accurate valuation, and these interview techniques can be useful to the appraiser who cares about his clients enough to protect them from fraud.

Jonathan Davison
Mr. Davison travels the world for the ACFE, studies the investigative interviewing methods of various countries and measures their effectiveness on various quantitative scales. He has made investigative interviewing into a science.

Most people’s perceptions of "investigative interviewing" are not based on reality, but on dramatic representations, particularly in American television media.  Davison made a statement to the effect of “Don’t be Starsky and Hutch, be Columbo”, which immediately resonated with me, because in my own book on real estate fraud prevention (see right-hand sidebar), I also lauded fictional LAPD Lieutenant Columbo as having a particularly effective interviewing technique.

Columbo never starts an interview with a suspect by telling him that he is a suspect, and he is humble, deferential, friendly, inquisitive and persistent enough to keep the suspect talking under a false sense of security, revealing valuable clues along the way. He is a modest man who dresses poorly, drives an old car, and is easily underestimated.  It's only at the end of several encounters that Columbo finally does his trademark "Just one more thing…” that takes the suspect by surprise when he provides proof of the suspect’s guilt, with the suspect often having been tricked into proving his or her own culpability. And throughout the whole process, Columbo never shows any disrespect for the suspect.

What does this all mean, though, to real estate appraisers, investors, or lenders, when a crime has not yet been committed?  The answer is fraud prevention.

When starting any valuation assignment or performing a property inspection, I assume that the representatives I interact with are honest, but I remain alert to clues that they may be otherwise.  This often starts with honesty-calibrating questions.  The attorneys I work with advise other lawyers to only ask questions in court that they already know the answers to, and I do this to a limited extent when I start the interview process.

An appraiser should have already done homework on the appraised property prior to his inspection.  One honesty-calibrating question I like to ask is “Who owns the property, when was it acquired, and for what price?” The reason it works so well in the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK and some other British Commonwealth countries is that it is usually public record. If the answer to this first question is a lie or exaggeration, I remain on guard for more lies to come. Like Lieutenant Columbo, pretending to be ignorant of certain facts lays the bait for spotting liars or exaggerators, and it never ceases to amaze me that property owners, brokers, or other stakeholders are willing to believe that appraisers are ignorant. 

Keeping the property owner talking, even if I already know the answers to the questions, often dislodges inconsistencies or details that may have otherwise remained hidden and can open up new lines of questioning.  Inconsistencies are often clues to misrepresentations, as the truth should not vary.  Spotting inconsistencies is the way how Columbo caught killers and is standard investigative interview technique.

For instance, in one loan application I received three almost-identical purchase contracts from stakeholders in a purchase and sale transaction, with the one difference being that the amount of acreage being sold differed significantly but the total purchase price was identical in each contract. Situations like this make me suspect that the purchase transaction is not real.

In a private moment with the seller, I had the following conversation:

Me:  So, where are you going next?

Seller:  What do you mean?

Me:  After the sale closes, what will you do next?  Where will you move to?

Seller:  We’re not going anywhere; we’re going to have a lot of work to do, developing this property.

Me:  Oh.  I thought you were selling the property.


As it turned out, the buyer and seller were partners and old military buddies, and the purchase contracts were sham documents.

In another instance, the owner could not get his story straight about the tenant improvement allowance he would be giving a new tenant, a state legislator. I called the state legislator and found that the landlord had forged her name on a lease and she had no plans on moving offices.

I also stay alert for seemingly innocuous but odd statements, as I try to discern a purpose for any unusual statement. For instance, one Puerto Rican land developer talked of using one particular escrow company for his purchases.  This is often done to steer business to a relative or a friend who owns an escrow company, which is of no particular concern to me, but it is also a common element in mortgage fraud, and a quick Internet search of this developer's name disclosed that he had been convicted of mortgage fraud a year earlier and was fined $1 million. The court should have jailed him so he wouldn't keep on repeating the same tricks.

Sequential ordering of questions

Mr. Davison advises starting interviews with non-threatening questions, and when inconsistencies are identified, ordering the questions from "least impactive to most impactive" to preserve the cordiality of the interview.  As for my own interviews, I save any controversial questions until after I have been driven back to my car, as I often appraise in remote areas.  In the Dominican Republic, I waited until after I had left the country, as the developer claimed to be a personal friend of the president.

The moral of the story is that when an appraiser starts getting unusual statements and different answers to the same question, a lot more questioning and digging is in order. Also see my recent blog post on "Critical Thinking Skills".

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Appraisal of an Industrial Property in San Jose, Costa Rica


Urban real estate appraising sometimes yields pleasant surprises, as the shortage of land in growing or geographically constricted cities can create situations in which a property’s land value can exceed its value as currently improved. I appraised a similar situation in San Francisco, California immediately before flying to San Jose, Costa Rica to appraise the property of a bankrupt boatbuilding company.

I stayed at the charming Hotel de Bergerac in the Los Yoses barrio of San Jose while making a two-kilometer walk to and from the subject property, located in the rapidly urbanizing suburb of San Pedro in the canton of Montes de Oca. Vacant lots were few to be found, and new, upscale retail stores were often built next to dilapidated, corrugated steel structures, as often occurs in Latin American cities concurrently experiencing prosperity and land shortages. Moreover, much of San Pedro had been upzoned, permitting building heights of up to 7 stories and site coverage of up to 85%.

Montes de Oca has a particular attribute contributing to its growth. It is also known as Costa Rica’s “Cradle of Higher Education”, including the Universidad de Costa Rica, Universidad Latina and Universidad Fidelitas, all located in or near San Pedro.

Arriving at the subject property, I was initially disappointed to see the physical deterioration of the various structures, most of which were aging metal buildings with rusting steel roofs. This is one of the common letdowns of foreign appraising – traveling many hours and thousands of miles to find a property that is far less than as described. It makes me anxious that someone is going to be angry with my report. The remaining physical life of these particular buildings was rather limited, although San Jose’s 96% industrial occupancy rate does prolong the usage of older buildings.

What was encouraging to see, though, were two neighboring industrial sites that had already been redeveloped with attractive new multifamily housing. San Pedro has a housing shortage and has been encouraging multifamily development.


In one of my posts last year, http://www.internationalappraiser.com/2012/07/appraisals-of-view-land-in-costa-rica.html, I described my lunch with a Costa Rican appraiser in which I asked what Costa Rican appraisers use for comparable land sales. He said that because of the lack of publicly available land sales data, the San Jose provincial government has created a map system for appraisers known as La Mapa de Valores de Terrenos, which sets a baseline value per district, which is then adjusted by appraisers for site factors such as size, zoning, commercial street frontage and terrain. The base rate for this section of San Pedro is 180,000 colones per square meter, equivalent to $358 per square meter (or $33.25 psf) at today’s exchange rate. These land values are comparable to CBD land values in many U.S. cities.

When the comparable improved property sales and listings and land sales and listings were compared, it became clear that the subject property was no longer improved at its “highest and best use”. The land value of the site, even adjusted for demolition and remediation costs, still exceeded the “value in use” of the current improvements, and there seems to be enough collateral value to support the requested loan, which, ironically, is going to be used to restart boat production.

More later, when the loan is funded.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

South African update: Will the ouster of Malema stop the decline in farm values?



In my last report on South Africa, I mentioned two possible factors in the price decline for South African game farms. One factor was the overall world surplus of vacation properties for the super-rich, and the second factor was political rhetoric calling for uncompensated government expropriation of white-owned land, rhetoric amplified by a rising star in South African politics, Julius Malema, the ANC’s Youth League President. Last Thursday, Malema was removed from his position and suspended from ANC for five years for bringing disrepute to the party, because of his divisive speeches within South Africa as well as his interference in the politics of neighboring countries. He has been constantly opposed by President Jacob Zuma.

The removal of Malema may help restore investor confidence, although the Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Shares Index was up by less than one percent after his sacking. The JSE AS index was hit hard earlier this week by a sovereign ratings downgrade from Moody’s.

Expropriation of white-owned properties

Confiscation of white-owned properties occurred during the 1990s in nearby Zimbabwe (formerly known as Rhodesia) and has resulted in a decline in agricultural productivity there and an overall implosion of the economy after a period of hyperinflation.

At end of the Apartheid Period of South Africa in the 1990s, 87% of commercial farmland was white-owned, and the new ANC-led government pledged a compensated program of land redistribution that would transfer 30% of white-owned land to blacks. Progress has been slow, and whites still own 84% of commercial farmland.

It is difficult to calculate the effect of the removal of Malema in restoring real estate market confidence. The ANC Youth League which he presided over still insists, after his ouster, on the nationalization of mines, a similar issue, and this matter is still being actively studied by the African National Congress despite the insistence of national leaders that it would never happen.

One problem also besetting the agricultural sector is the reportedly high murder rate of white farmers, most who are allegedly killed during ordinary robberies rather than politically motivated violence. More than 3000 farmers are alleged to have been murdered so far, a very alarming number, and Malema's removal will have little effect in stopping this trend.
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