Monday, November 6, 2017

A Reassessment of Real Estate Guru Ronan McMahon: Real Math vs. "Ronan Math"


Almost 5 years ago I published a post that was critical of International Living magazine and their anointed real estate guru, Ronan McMahon, for the bad investment advice being presented. http://www.internationalappraiser.com/2013/02/ronan-mcmahons-real-estate-trend-alert.html I also pointed out a conflict of interest, as IL must serve its advertisers, and certain problematic real estate markets were being continually touted despite declining real estate values. (In my own travels, I have observed that the foreign vacation home/retirement home market has not yet recovered from the global financial crisis 9 years ago, and the price of land has been declining for years.)

Each month, Ronan McMahon writes in IL of another “get rich quick” market, and I have to bite my tongue because I may not have been to that place recently or at all. Nevertheless, in the last 5 years I have received many e-mails about the blog post about him, plus more than 50 comments published on the post, and no one has ever disputed me, but many have thanked me. I’m still waiting for the comment, “Ronan and Real Estate Trend Alert made me rich!”

Which brings up his latest article in the November 2017 issue of International Living, “Gold in the Hills: Prime Ocean Views No One is Looking For”. The article mostly refers to Nicaragua, where I have not visited yet, but he also refers to Costa Rica as a real estate investment success story. As he specifically refers to “ocean view” land in Costa Rica, I feel the need to offer a dissenting opinion.

My first appraisal of Costa Rican ocean view land was in early 2009, before I started this blog. When I returned in 2012 I was surprised to find that asking prices on ocean view land had declined by 75%, and there were many “se vende” [for sale] signs around. Two years later the asking prices were even lower, and the only sale I could find was an ocean view parcel that sold at one third of its listing price.

Real Math vs. Ronan Math 

This brings to mind his constantly deceptive proofs of price appreciation of his previous buy recommendations.  The legitimate method of measuring price appreciation is to measure closed sales prices over a time period and establish a price index or compute percentage increases over a fixed time period. The big real estate brokerages do this in the U.S., and I saw the same process used in France. Although I do not always trust brokers, I have learned to rely on their data. Occasionally, I have seen a realtor enter a false comparable sale into the Multiple Listing Service or LoopNet, but that is not common, so it should not have much effect on price indexes.

"Ronan Math" involves taking the lowest closed sales price in a condominium complex, probably a smaller unit, at the beginning of the time period, and compare it to the highest asking price in the same complex (probably a larger unit) some time later. There is no discussion of today's closed sales. Then he tells the reader that if we had taken his advice, we could have achieved returns over 100%. This is so disingenuous that it mocks the field of Mathematics.

The truest statement McMahon made in the article was “There needs to be a finite amount of coast and beach.” My own observations of Costa Rica are that it has an almost infinite amount of ocean view land, owing to its topography and coastlines, and much of this land is for sale.

Magazine articles often use callouts (insets) to reinforce the key points of the article. McMahon uses two callouts in his latest article:

Make a killing in the medium to long term”

It’s been a long time since I’ve heard of an investor making a killing in Costa Rica. If this is happening, I would expect it be happening in a trendy neighborhood in San Jose, where the real land shortage is.

The better the views, the more you’ll sell for.”

A view is worth little, though, if it has no access nor building permits nor infrastructure nor water or the grade is too steep for development.

McMahon never discusses such things, though, suggesting that his knowledge of real estate investment is primitive at best. It's almost as if he has never taken a class in real estate. 

Each article also recommends buying in a “Path of Progress”. My own observation is that the moment an area is labeled as a “path of progress”, asking prices for land skyrocket and then gradually fall as reality sets in that progress takes longer than expected.

In 5 years, no one has e-mailed me or left a comment that my opinion of Ronan McMahon is wrong.  His real estate investment advice is consistently bad.  I have seen no testimonials to the contrary. Even his arithmetic is bad.

So why does International Living continue to employ him?  It is because IL is a sales organization and McMahon is a master bullshitter. 

Some of my friends in the real estate sales profession have a favorite film -- Glen Garry Glen Ross -- released in 1992 with such star actors as Al Pacino, Kevin Spacey, Alec Baldwin, Ed Harris and the late Jack Lemmon. All the characters are land salesmen at a Chicago real estate firm, relentlessly telemarketing land in the faraway states of Arizona and Florida using every sales trick in the book.

The management of the firm sends Alec Baldwin to motivate the salesmen into improving their sales or face termination, with lines such as:

"Only one thing counts in this life -- get them to sign on the line which is dotted."

and the oft-quoted "ABC -- Always Be Closing".

So remember that Ronan McMahon and International Living have an agenda that might be inimical to your interests -- to get you to sign on the line which is dotted.




"Wot? Are you accusing me of bad arithmetic, too?"






Saturday, November 4, 2017

Rental Properties Marketed on Mondinion.com, PropertyO and Nubricks.com

Rental home in Inkster, Michigan


Lately I have been receiving e-mails from real estate agencies Mondinion.com and PropertyO.com, both headquartered in the United Kingdom, advertising preconstruction opportunities to buy individual rental units in hotels, senior care facilities and apartment buildings.  These opportunities are often accompanied by guarantees of rental income for a period of two or more years and sometimes an optional buyback from the seller at higher price after a few years. 



As it has been 4 years since my last UK valuation assignment, I cannot comment on the merit of these investment opportunities which are mostly in the UK. It has been my observation over the last 33 years, though, that when properties are being built for investors rather than occupants, that is the sign of a real estate market entering a bubble phase.



If owner-occupants cannot outbid investors, that is a sign of impending weakness.  Investors often enter these transactions expecting that negative cash flows will be rewarded by ever-increasing property price appreciation, but such a market collapses on itself when there is an insufficient number of renters to occupy all units and cover the investor’s ownership costs. In Southern California I saw this happen in the early 1990s and again starting in 2006 in the more distant L.A. suburbs. Southern California home prices plunged afterwards.


One disingenuous technique I see used by advertisers on Mondinion is to advertise unbuilt projects with projected 9% yields, ignoring the Law of Supply and Demand.  An increase in the supply of units could drive rents downwards. This is a natural consequence of building for investors rather than occupants. New York City is already experiencing the consequences.  The median price of a new condominium has so far declined 27% this year, yet many more luxury condos continue to be built.  Likewise, the ultra-luxury Metropolis in downtown Los Angeles is experiencing a slowdown of sales as an estimated 60% of buyers are investors, not occupants.



Existing Rental Properties for Sale


Recently, Mondinion and PropertyO have advertised U.S. rental home investment opportunities in areas I have appraised in. One thing in common is that all the properties have been in depopulating cities.

The first opportunity was that of rental homes in the Detroit, Michigan metropolitan area. Curiously, the advertisement stated that this investment was not suitable for U.S. investors, raising the question of “how can an investment unsuitable for U.S. investors be suitable for foreign investors?” Another questionable claim was that all of this seller's properties were in "safe neighborhoods". The broker is Marigold Investment Properties, a British company.

Having a friend make an inquiry, I was informed of a 900 sf, 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom rental home, built in 1955, available in Inkster, Michigan, a western suburb of Detroit, for the price of $48,000, guaranteed to produce $9000 per year in rent. The owners paid $26,500 for this home on 4/23/15 and have assumedly renovated it since then.

Checking a demographic research web site, I found that this forecasted rent was close to the estimated median rent of $738 per month ($8856 per year) for Inkster. I was also pleasantly surprised to find that the official living area (per tax assessor) was 1036 square feet. What was more sobering was an estimated local vacancy rate of 16.9% (better than Detroit’s 22% vacancy rate), and a population decline of 37% in the last 50 years. More troubling is that NeighborhoodScout.com rated Inkster as having a higher crime rate than 93% of Michigan communities, with a violent crime rate three times the Michigan average. Not a "safe neighborhood", as advertised.

I sometimes consult data-aggregating web sites such as Trulia.com and Zillow.com to garner real estate market information. All analysis is done by computer, which is not quite as accurate as a competent and honest real estate appraiser. Trulia has estimated the median home value in Inkster as $42,300, having declined 50% in the last decade. Zillow placed the median home value at just $40,900. Zillow estimates that this home has decreased in value by 14% in last month. CoreLogic indicated nearby home sales in the last month in the $38,000 to $43,000 range.

Trulia.com report on the subject property and its neighborhood


Why you should hesitate to buy rental homes in depopulating cities


I have seen other rental home opportunities marketed by PropertyO in other cities such as Chicago, Cleveland and Memphis. These are all depopulating cities. DNAinfo.com, for instance, compiled a list of the 10 U.S. cities losing the most residents between 2015 and 2016:


1. Chicago

2. Baltimore

3. Milwaukee

4. Detroit

5. St. Louis

6. Shreveport

7. Columbus

8. Cleveland

9. Jackson, MS

10. Memphis




Here’s the reason to avoid such investments:  Depopulating cities experience decreasing property values and rents. Investing in older buildings in depopulating areas is a prescription for failure.  The Rust Belt, for instance, has many cities that have lost half their population in the last 50 years, including Detroit, Cleveland, Youngstown and Dayton.  This usually means increasing vacancies, despite gallant leasing efforts.  Rents are so low that only the lowest cost renovations make any sense, too.  Even then, new space gets built, hastening the demise of the older buildings. 


Back to Inkster, this investment is being marketed without any guaranteed rents, but the seller will manage the property for you for 10% of gross rental income.  Such a high rate is typical of a problematic housing market where good tenants are hard to find. 4% is more typical.

I have also seen other rental properties marketed with short-term guarantees of rental income.  Guaranteed rental income for the first two years” is a seller promise that should be interpreted as a sign of weakness, not security, because an adequately performing rental property does not need to be sold with any such guarantees.  It is almost tantamount to saying that Year 3 is going to be a crapshoot because tenants are hard to find. Do not be surprised to see that the property’s previous asking price has been inflated to more than cover the amount of these guaranteed rents. Can the guarantor remain solvent if real estate rents and prices decline, though?


This reminds me of a phrase I have sometimes read on Craigslist:

“Only a scammer will ‘guarantee’ your transaction.”

-- Craigslist